Dead week.
September 14, 2015 13:18:16 | 0 comments

Nobody is going to do much this week, waiting for the Fed’s decision e nothing is more unclear at this moment then the effect of such decision in the markets. Being the decision a binary event, there are two groups in the market: on Group 1, we find those who think the FED must and will increase rates as all the conditions, except inflation, have being met. Among then, the more extreme think that the FED is already late. On group 2, we find those who think that given the international environment and the potential impact of a greater slowdown in China, an interest rate increase can wait. If group 1 is correct and the FED raises interest rates that will be considered (by that group) good news and positive for the markets. Group 2 however will think that the decision was a mistake and will act accordingly. The issue is to find out which group will be more influential in the markets. If the FED doesn’t raise interest rate, the same reasoning applies with opposite results. In other words, unless you are an algorithm trader, the best course of action is to wait. If you are in cash, just keep that way. If you are invested, do the same. Don’t try to guess where the markets will go because, now more than ever is very difficult to time the market. Don’t think you will be missing an opportunity to buy low or to sell high. They will come again as the volatility is here to stay.