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Post crisis economic growth: why austerity is not an answer.
August 17, 2015 18:25:14 | 0 comments

Photo3 Source: Wall Street Journal   The chart above was published on the WSJ on Saturday. it shows growth in the major economies adjusted for inflation and seasonality. The chart speaks by itself and shows that austerity disn't help the Eurozone at all.

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2016 Presidential Elections
August 14, 2015 19:23:49 | 0 comments

In the republican camp, the roster of candidates looks more like a soccer team with starters and bench warmers. They are running for different reasons, some want to be President and have a chance to win the nomination, others are running for the money- not that they are going to take money, but with the exposure they hope to be invited to more lectures, “gigs” and then make money. As for Pataki, for instance, I have no idea why he is running. In the democrat camp Hillary sailing is not as smooth as it seemed in the beginning, Not only Bernie Sanders is attracting more voters and publicity that expected but rumor has it that Joe Biden is still considering a bid. Also, the campaign to discredit her is in full force. It is too early to predict but judging by the first republican debate last week, it will be very entertaining.

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It is war.....
September 17, 2014 13:24:07 | 0 comments

Less than a week after Obama’s address to the nation, we finally know what we are doing with ISIS: we are at war. This was made clear in the past few days by the speeches of the Secretary of defense and other military chiefs. It reminds me of Boardwalk Empire, the phenomenal HBO series, now in its season finale. Every time Nucky Thompson says he wants to quit and doesn’t want to fight his men start killing an enemy. The stock market, as always, didn’t react negatively to the geo political issues and in fact, rallied yesterday, ahead of the Fed statements which are expected for later today. In Brazil, elections are in the heart and mind of every body and it might seem that Aecio Neves has some chance as the two main contenders continue attacking each other. We are very close to election day and realistic, only a miracle would put Aecio in the second run, as he would need to gain about 20 points .As unfortunately as it might be, hope is all he has for now. This week after the FED, all eyes will be in the Alibaba IPO, which is already oversubscribed. Other technology stocks lost ground as ...

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Obama's fate
September 10, 2014 15:18:12 | 0 comments

Americans are always surprising me and this time I am amazed by the reaction to a potential American intervention to combat ISIS. Few months ago, just the thought of engaging in another war was rejected by the majority of the population. Now, and according to a WSJ poll that is not the case, as 34% think the USA should put boots on the ground. What changed: the beheading of 2 Americans journalists. That is awful and it is an atrocity that should be condemned but that really is NOT a threat to national security. However, now 61% of the population thinks that military action against ISIS is in America’s national interest. I feel bad for Obama. He was elected, amongst other things, to end the 2 wars initiated by the previous administration .Now it is very possible that due to popular demand and political pressure he initiates another one. The question remains: is the USA intending to occupy every country on earth that has terrorists? We will now more tonight, in primetime!

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Freedom for Venezuela
March 03, 2014 18:44:02 | 0 comments

Freedom for Venezuela look at the video and spread the word.

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Obama's dilema .
October 09, 2013 15:33:31 | 0 comments

Perception is what drives the market: the perception that the economy is going well or not, perception about the earnings and so on and so forth. One could argue that it is not about perception, it is about facts, and it is about data. Truth is, data is subject to interpretation, and the same data might have different interpretations. That is why the market itself exists: because of different perceptions, someone is buying while someone is selling. The last 10 days are a very good example of that: when the shutdown finally materialized the stock market reaction was not extraordinary. In fact, the S&P closed at 1681.55 on September 30th and at 1695 on October 1st. Some continue to act as the event was priced already; others believed that it wouldn’t last long. More importantly, nobody believed that politicians would be so irrational ; as the statements and press conferences coming from DC continued to show an huge difference between the parties involved, the “market” finally recognized  that agents are irrational, and more important, politicians ar...

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Government shut down, markets go up….Or not.
October 01, 2013 14:06:57 | 0 comments

Yesterday the US Congress had a memorable day- and night- that led to the government shut down. There are several ways to interpret the event and without taking any sides, I want to comment on the institutional side of it. Americans praise themselves for their democratic and legal system.  The last few weeks put those values in jeopardy. The ACA (or Obamacare) is a law, approved by Congress and signed by the President.  It is a law that was upheld by the Supreme Court and was not repealed in the presidential elections. Remember one candidate- the looser- promise to repeal it if elected, and the other- the winner, promised to implement the law.So, when some members of the House want to repeal the law and the Speaker of the house doesn’t have the guts to put a clean bill to fund the Government to vote, it shows that, besides being sore losers, they do not respect the democratic and legal system. That is dangerous and shameful. In the meantime, it looks like the market decided to ignore politics and go on with its business. I have to confess I am a little surprised by that, I was...

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Eyes in the wrong place.
September 18, 2013 15:07:11 | 0 comments

All eyes are on Bernanke today and what will he do, notwithstanding the fact that, whatever he announces, is priced already .Bernanke will not do much, I believe, because the uncertainty over the Continuing Resolution and debt ceiling it too high. The Congress has only few days to pass a resolution so the Government doesn’t shut down after September 30, when the fiscal year ends. Tea Party members in the house are eager to defund The ACA ( Obamacare) and say they will not pass any bill to keep the Government running if there are funds for Obamacare. Also, they are promising to vote against the debt ceiling raise for the same reason. So, while all the eyes are on Bernanke, they should be on the Congress.  Are we going back to the summer of 2011?

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Hillary Clinton on Syria
September 09, 2013 18:54:28 | 0 comments

Hillary just met with Obama and says that 3 points are important in the debate: the acts are human and demands a strong response; the international community can't ignore the stockpile of chemical weapons. the broader conflict is a threat to our  allies and partners. At the end of the day, I believe Obama will have to make the decision alone. He doesn't have the support of the American people, nor the Congress. The UN will never support because Russia will veto anything against Syria. That is hard decision to make and I would not want to be in his shoes. In the meantime the market is up, ignoring the latest developments which begs the question: is the market priced already for a strike? Maybe it is, because as the verbal war escalates the market should at least be on stand by mode.  

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On Syria...
September 02, 2013 20:57:27 | 0 comments

Ever since the August 21st attacks on the suburbs of Damascus, the question of whether the international community should use military intervention in Syria has been the subject of much domestic and international debate. On August 30th, the White House released a statement claiming that US intelligence suggests the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons banned under the Chemical Weapons Convention, allegedly authorized by Syrian President Bashar al-Asad. Despite this bold assumption, however, United Nations inspectors are still working with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in order to determine whether the August 21st attacks did involve use chemical weapons. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is due to brief the five permanent members of the UN Security council (the United States, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom) during this week on the findings of this investigation. Importantly, the United Nations-Arab League Envoy for Syria has firmly stated that any country’s decision to intervene in Syria with force must Read More »